• AUD/USD renews intraday high while bouncing off one-week low after declining in the last six consecutive weeks.
  • Australia Retail Sales for July rises 0.5% versus 0.3% expected and -0.8% prior.
  • Aussie Treasurer Chalmers flag economic fears due to ties with China.
  • China stimulus joins the US Dollar’s preparations for this week’s top-tier inflation, employment data to trigger corrective bounce.

AUD/USD rises half a percent to around 0.6440 as it prods the key upside hurdle after witnessing upbeat Australia Retail Sales. Adding strength to the Aussie pair’s rebound could be China stimulus and the US Dollar’s retreat ahead of this week’s key inflation and employment data.

That said, Australia’s seasonally adjusted Retail Sales for July rose to 0.5% MoM versus 0.3% expected and -0.8% prior.

However, late on Sunday, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers flagged expectations of witnessing substantially weaker Australian growth due to higher interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and China’s slowdown, which in turn prods the Aussie pair buyers.

Furthermore, China’s downbeat Industrial Profits and the mixed concerns about the US-China trade talks in Beijing, as US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visits the Dragon Nation, also prod the AUD/USD pair’s latest rebound.

It’s worth noting, however, that weekend news from China suggests the introduction of one more measure to boost the economic activity, via halving of the stamp duty of 0.1% on stocks trading. On the same line could be the news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) which cites people familiar with the decision-making process in China to highlight Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping’s deep-rooted philosophical objections to Western-style consumption-driven growth, suggesting more stimulus ahead.

Against this backdrop, the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yields snapped the four-week uptrend by posting minor weekly losses as it retreated from the highest level since 2007, before posting a corrective bounce to 4.25% at the latest. It should be noted that Wall Street closed positive the previous day but S&P500 Futures struggle for clear directions.

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the Aussie data, the AUD/USD pair traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalysts for fresh impulse ahead of Wednesday’s Australia Monthly Consumer Price Index for July. Above all, Friday’s official PMIs from China, Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July, and the monthly employment data will be crucial for clear directions.

Technical analysis

A six-week-old falling resistance line, close to 0.6430 by the press time, restricts immediate upside of the AUD/USD pair even if the quote defends the previous week’s rebound from the downward-sloping support line from early March, around 0.6350 at the latest.


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