• US Dollar Index extends late Friday’s pullback from 10-week high, holds lower ground to pare five-week uptrend.
  • Mixed concerns about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole joins light calendar to prod DXY bulls.
  • Mostly upbeat US data, risk-off mood previously allowed Greenback to remain firmer.
  • Preliminary readings of August PMIs, US Durable Goods Orders also eyed for clear directions.

US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls take a breather after a five-week uptrend as markets appear dicey about Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Also likely to have prod the Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies is the cautious optimism amid hopes of more stimulus from China, as well as the consolidation of the DXY’s previous gains ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events. That said, the US Dollar Index drops to 103.30 by the press time of the early Asian session on Monday, extending the previous day’s retreat from the 2.5-month high.

Goldman Sachs expects Fed Chair Powell to sound defensive during the annual event of the central bankers but the Bank of America (BofA) expects Fed’s Powell to push back against the rate cut expectations. The reason for these banks’ indecision could be linked to the recently mixed US data and the previous bias about the policy pivot.

During the last week, the upbeat US NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Retail Sales and wage growth allowed the DXY to remain firmer for the fifth consecutive week, especially backed by the hawkish Fed Minutes. That said, the latest Fed Minutes showed that most policymakers preferred supporting the battle again the ‘sticky’ inflation, despite being divided on the imminent rate hike.

Additionally, the market players started reassessing previous biases about the major central banks and added strength to the risk aversion, primarily fuelled by the China-linked woes. That said, investors anticipated that the end of the rate hike cycle is still unclear, which means more bearish pressure on riskier assets and a rush for the US Dollar.

It’s worth noting, however, that the weekend news from China suggests the dragon nation’s more efforts to infuse liquidity into the world’s second-largest economy, which in turn triggered the market’s cautious optimism during early Monday. While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed mixed on Friday whereas the US Treasury bond yields retreat after a strongly negative week for the equities and the upbeat bound coupons. That said, the S&P500 Futures remain lackluster at the monthly low by the press time.

Looking ahead, a light calendar on Monday may allow the DXY to extend the latest bullish consolidation. However, this week’s preliminary readings of the August month Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) and Durable Goods Orders for July will entertain the US Dollar traders ahead of the central bankers’ speeches at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium event, scheduled between August 24 and 26.

Should Fed Chair Powell fails to defend the hawks, the DXY will stretch the latest pullback from the key resistance line.

Technical analysis

Friday’s Doji candlestick joins a downward-sloping resistance line from early March, around 103.55 by the press time, to challenge the US Dollar Index (DXY) bulls. That said, the 200-DMA level of around 103.20 holds the key to the bear’s entry.


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