Early Wednesday at 02:00 GMT market sees the key monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) amid hopes of witnessing another play of status quo by the New Zealand central bank, despite doves flexing muscles of late.

RBNZ is less likely to fuel the market moves with its anticipated no rate change announcements for the third consecutive time.

The Interest Rate Decision will be accompanied by the RBNZ Rate Statement which can provide further details on the central bank’s next moves, making it crucial for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch.

Furthermore, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s presser at 03:00 GMT also amplifies Wednesday’s importance for the Kiwi pair traders.

Ahead of the event, Analysts at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said,

We expect the RBNZ will leave the OCR unchanged at 5.50%, reiterating their ‘watch, worry and wait’ stance. Data since the July nothing-to-see-here Monetary Policy Review has been mixed, with relatively resilient demand but inflation indicators falling according to the script – an attractive mix, but one of questionable sustainability. As always, there’s a huge amount of wiggle room in terms of how the Committee interprets the implications of the recent data flow. We don’t expect a hat-tip to the chance of more hikes in this Statement, but the OCR forecast may show rates remaining at their peak for a little longer.

On the same line, FXStreet’s Matias Salord said,

The RBNZ is unlikely to make changes, and any surprise could come from the statement and a change in the forward guidance or the macroeconomic forecasts. At this point, the surprise could be in either direction, with optimistic or pessimistic forecasts, or by offering a hawkish or dovish interest rate outlook.

How could it affect NZD/USD?

NZD/USD renews the yearly low near 0.5950 heading into the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision. The Kiwi pair’s latest fall could be linked to the broad risk aversion wave and the US Dollar strength, especially amid downbeat concerns surrounding China.

That said, the clear early signals of witnessing no rate hike limit the NZD/USD moves unless the RBNZ surprises the Kiwi pair traders.

Apart from the interest rates, the economic forecasts and language of the RBNZ Rate Statement will also be the key for the NZD/USD pair traders to watch.

It’s worth noting that the existence of the Fed Minutes dims the importance of today’s RBNZ announcements unless any surprises erupt.

Technically, a daily closing below May’s bottom of around 0.5985 directs the NZD/USD bears toward the early October 2022 peak of around 0.5815.


RBNZ Preview: Forecasts from six major banks, OCR on ice at 5.50%

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision Preview: Holding on the hold

NZD/USD remains under pressure below the 0.5950 area ahead of the RBNZ rate decision

About the RBNZ interest rate decision and rate statement

The RBNZ interest rate decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. The RBNZ rate statement contains explanations of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision.

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